Каков размер рынка онлайн-торговли в мире в 2024? А в 2034?

📈 Мировой рынок e-commerce: $17,5 трлн к 2034 году

Международная розница в онлайне продолжит экспансию: по оценкам Market.us, рынок вырастет с $5,75 трлн в 2024 до $17,5 трлн в 2034 году. CAGR — 11,8% в течение 10 лет.

🌍 Ключевые факты:

• В 2024 году лидером стала Северная Америка с долей 32,7% — $1,88 трлн
• Только рынок США достиг $1,69 трлн, ожидаемый темп роста — 10,6% в год
• Сегмент одежды и аксессуаров занял 23,7% e-commerce рынка
• B2B-продажи занимают 63,6% рынка электронной розницы
• Формат Pure Marketplace (Ozon, Amazon, AliExpress и др.) — 58,7% мирового рынка

🔧 Что влияет на рост:

• Быстрая цифровизация и развитие инфраструктуры
• Персонализация на базе ИИ и машинного обучения
• Интеграция с соцсетями и социальная коммерция
• Поддержка голосовых ассистентов и чат-ботов

💡 Тренды:
• Виртуальные примерочные
• AR-демонстрации продуктов
• Переход от витрин к рекомендациям

📌 К 2034 году e-commerce будет одним из крупнейших секторов глобальной торговли — в 3 раза больше, чем сегодня.

 

Подробности от market.us

Report Overview

The Global Retail E-Commerce Market size is expected to be worth around USD 17,548.7 Bn By 2034, from USD 5752.1 Bn in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 11.80% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2034. In 2024, North America held a dominant market share of 32.7% in retail e-commerce, generating approximately USD 1,880.9 bn. The U.S. market alone reached USD 1,692.8 bn, driven by digital transformation, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.6%.

Retail E-commerce refers to the buying and selling of goods and services over the internet, primarily targeting individual consumers. This model leverages digital platforms to facilitate transactions without the need for physical storefronts. It encompasses various activities, including online shopping, electronic payments, and digital marketing, all aimed at providing a seamless shopping experience for consumers.

The Retail E-commerce Market has witnessed substantial growth over the past decade. In 2024, global retail e-commerce sales reached approximately $6.5 trillion, marking a significant increase from previous years. This growth is attributed to factors such as increased internet penetration, the proliferation of smartphones, and advancements in digital payment systems.

Top Driving Factors influencing the retail e-commerce market include technological advancements, changing consumer behaviors, and the expansion of digital infrastructure. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has enabled personalized shopping experiences, while the rise of social media platforms has provided new avenues for marketing and customer engagement.

Increasing Adoption of Technologies such as AI, augmented reality (AR), and virtual reality (VR) is transforming the retail e-commerce landscape. These technologies enhance the shopping experience by providing personalized recommendations, virtual try-ons, and immersive product demonstrations. The adoption of chatbots and virtual assistants has also improved customer service efficiency, addressing queries and facilitating transactions in real-time.

According to Market.us’s research, The Global E-commerce Market is poised for exponential expansion, with its total value expected to rise from approximately USD 28.29 trillion in 2024 to nearly USD 151.5 trillion by 2034, progressing at a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.29% over the forecast period from 2025 to 2034.

Parallel to this, The AI Agents in eCommerce Market is on a transformative growth trajectory, with its size projected to surge from approximately USD 3.6 billion in 2024 to around USD 282.6 billion by 2034. This remarkable expansion is driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54.7% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2034.

Key Reasons for Adopting These Technologies include the desire to improve customer engagement, increase operational efficiency, and gain a competitive edge. By leveraging data analytics, retailers can better understand consumer behavior and tailor their offerings accordingly. Automation of various processes reduces operational costs and minimizes human error, contributing to overall business performance.

Key Takeaways

• The global retail e-commerce market size is expected to reach USD 17,548.7 billion by 2034, growing from USD 5,752.1 billion in 2024, at a CAGR of 11.80% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2034.
• In 2024, the Apparels and Accessories segment held a dominant market position, capturing more than a 23.7% share of the global retail e-commerce market.
• The Business to Business (B2B) segment also held a dominant position in 2024, capturing more than a 63.6% share of the global retail e-commerce market.
• The Pure Marketplace segment held a significant lead in 2024, commanding more than a 58.7% share of the global retail e-commerce market.
• North America maintained a dominant market position in 2024, holding more than a 32.7% share and generating approximately USD 1,880.9 billion in revenue from retail e-commerce.
• In 2024, the U.S. retail e-commerce market achieved a remarkable valuation of USD 1,692.8 billion, reflecting the digital transformation reshaping the American retail landscape.

Business Benefits

An online store is available 24/7, allowing customers to shop anytime. This constant availability boosts sales by eliminating the limits of traditional store hours and catering to customers across different time zones, including international shoppers. According to the report from Exploding Topics, 85% of global consumers now shop online, showing how e-commerce is a daily part of life for most people.

Online stores can offer free shippingand a variety of payment methods, including credit/debit cards, digital wallets, and buy-now-pay-later services. This flexibility accommodates customer preferences and can reduce cart abandonment rates. As per Webnexs report, offering free shipping can boost average order value by 56%, with 82% of shoppers more likely to complete a purchase if delivery is free .

E-commerce platforms track customer preferences and browsing habits to offer personalized product recommendations, enhancing the shopping experience. This tailored approach boosts customer satisfaction, increases the likelihood of purchases, and fosters loyalty. As per the same report, personalized shopping experiences powered by AI can increase sales by 10-30%, with 80% of e-commerce businesses already utilizing AI in some form .

AI Impact On Retail E-Commerce

• Personalized Shopping Experiences: AI enables online stores to offer tailored product recommendations by analyzing customer behavior. This personalization leads to higher customer satisfaction and increased conversion rates. Personalized AI recommendations can boost sales by up to 25% and increase the value of each purchase by 30%.
• Enhanced Visual Search Capabilities: AI-driven visual search allows customers to find products using images, improving the shopping experience. This technology helps users discover items more intuitively. According to BusinessDasher report, 51% of e-commerce businesses already use AI, and 84% are working on integrating it into their operations.
• 24/7 Customer Support with Chatbots: Retailers are utilizing AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants to provide instant responses to customer inquiries. These tools enhance customer satisfaction by offering support around the clock. AI-powered chatbots are used or planned by 80% of e-commerce businesses, helping automate customer support and drive sales as stated by the same report.
• Efficient Inventory Management: AI assists in optimizing inventory by predicting demand patterns, reducing overstock and stockouts. This leads to improved operational efficiency and cost savings for retailers.
• Dynamic Pricing Strategies: AI algorithms analyze market trends and customer behavior to adjust pricing in real-time. This dynamic pricing approach helps retailers remain competitive and maximize profits.

U.S. Market Analysis

In 2024, the U.S. retail e-commerce market reached a substantial valuation of USD 1,692.8 billion, underscoring the digital transformation reshaping the American retail landscape. This figure shows a shift in consumer behavior and increased reliance on online platforms for convenience, variety, and pricing. Retail sectors like electronics, apparel, groceries, and health products saw strong digital growth as brands expand omnichannel efforts and personalize experiences to drive loyalty.

The market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6%, indicating robust and sustained momentum through the forecast period. This growth is driven by rising internet and smartphone access, greater trust in online payments, widespread mobile app usage, and improved logistics for faster deliveries. Technologies like AI recommendations, AR try-ons, and voice-assisted shopping are also enhancing user experience and boosting conversion rates.

The U.S. e-commerce sector is experiencing a wave of innovation, with major retailers investing in digital tools and AI, while digital-native and small brands grow via marketplaces and social commerce. As consumer expectations rise, competition is intensifying, driving a focus on personalization, innovation, and seamless service for sustained growth.

In 2024, North America held a dominant market position in the global retail e-commerce sector, capturing more than a 32.7% share and generating approximately USD 1,880.9 billion in revenue. This leadership can be primarily attributed to the region’s high internet penetration rate, mature digital infrastructure, and advanced logistics capabilities.

The presence of major e-commerce players such as Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify, coupled with a tech-savvy consumer base, has fostered a highly competitive yet innovation-driven environment. Additionally, the widespread adoption of same-day delivery models, mobile commerce, and subscription-based retail platforms has significantly enhanced the customer experience, resulting in increased spending and repeat purchases.

The North American market thrives on strong purchasing power and high credit card use, driving smooth online transactions. U.S. consumers favor digital shopping for its convenience, variety, and pricing. Peak events like Black Friday see record sales, while digital marketing and personalization help retailers attract and retain customers.

North America’s supportive regulatory environment fosters digital commerce innovation, including in payments, privacy, and consumer protection. Cross-border e-commerce is growing, with sellers reaching global buyers via efficient supply chains and multilingual platforms. With strong tech capabilities and customer-centric strategies, the region is set to remain globally competitive.

Product Analysis

In 2024, Apparels and Accessories segment held a dominant market position, capturing more than a 23.7% share of the global retail e-commerce market. This strong performance can be attributed to the early adoption of digital channels by fashion brands and marketplaces, which enabled faster digital cataloging, virtual try-on features, and influencer-driven marketing campaigns.

The segment’s growth is driven by fast fashion cycles and seasonality, prompting frequent online shopping. Global brands use agile supply chains to quickly launch new trends, aligning with e-commerce’s real-time model. Mobile apps and push notifications further boost repeat purchases, especially among younger, trend-driven consumers.

Fashion and accessories thrive online due to their visual appeal, amplified by rich media and influencer marketing. Social commerce on platforms like Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok drives significant sales, especially in urban and Tier-II markets. AI-powered personalization boosts engagement and conversion rates in the apparel e-commerce space.

Return and exchange policies in the apparel segment have greatly improved, boosting customer confidence. Retailers now offer hassle-free returns, try-before-you-buy options, and AI-powered size guides, reducing buying friction and enhancing satisfaction. This evolution strengthens the segment’s leadership in retail e-commerce.

Business Model Analysis

In 2024, the Business to Business (B2B) segment held a dominant market position, capturing more than a 63.6% share of the global retail e-commerce market. This leading position can be attributed to the increasing digital transformation of supply chains and procurement processes across industries.

Companies are shifting their bulk purchasing activities online to benefit from streamlined order management, automated reordering, and real-time pricing. The convenience of accessing thousands of suppliers through centralized digital platforms is significantly reducing operational friction for businesses, especially in manufacturing, wholesale distribution, and retail sectors.

The B2B e-commerce space is also benefiting from a broader trend of enterprise-level digital adoption. As companies prioritize efficiency, B2B marketplaces are evolving beyond simple product listings. They now offer advanced features such as ERP integration, AI-powered recommendations, and credit-based purchasing systems.

The B2C segment, though smaller in share, remains dynamic and rapidly evolving. Growing consumer trust in digital channels, supported by strong return policies, real-time tracking, and mobile-first interfaces, fuels its expansion. Online giants, D2C startups, and traditional retailers with e-commerce arms are competing to deliver hyper-personalized shopping experiences.

 

Type Analysis

In 2024, the Pure Marketplace segment held a dominant market position, capturing more than a 58.7% share of the global retail e-commerce market. This dominance is largely driven by platforms such as Amazon, eBay, Etsy, and Alibaba, which operate without maintaining direct ownership of inventory.

These platforms act as intermediaries between third-party sellers and consumers, offering a vast range of products under one digital roof. The model’s scalability and low overhead costs make it attractive not only for platform operators but also for individual sellers and small businesses looking to expand their reach with minimal infrastructure investment.

The Pure Marketplace model thrives due to its flexibility, global seller base, and diverse product offerings. Consumers favor these platforms for competitive pricing, easy comparisons, and reliable reviews. Trust mechanisms like secure payments and buyer protection boost purchases, while mobile optimization enhances browsing and personalized recommendations.

As digital commerce becomes more competitive, the Pure Marketplace model remains flexible and adaptable. The Pure Marketplace model’s low entry barriers, global scalability, and operational efficiency give it a lasting advantage over hybrid models. As direct-to-consumer channels grow and more micro-entrepreneurs join, the Pure Marketplace segment is set to stay dominant in retail e-commerce.

Key Market Segments

By Product

• Groceries
• Apparels and Accessories
• Footwear
• Personal and Beauty Care
• Furniture and Home Decor
• Electronic Goods
• Others

By Business Model

• Business to Business (B2B)
• Business to Consumer (B2C)
• Consumer to Consumer (C2C)

By Type

• Pure Marketplace
• Hybrid Marketplace

Key Regions and Countries

• North America
  • US
  • Canada
• Europe
  • Germany
  • France
  • The UK
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • Rest of Europe
• Asia Pacific
  • China
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • India
  • Australia
  • Singapore
  • Rest of Asia Pacific
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Mexico
  • Rest of Latin America
• Middle East & Africa
  • South Africa
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE
  • Rest of MEA

Driver

Convenience and Personalization Fueling E-Commerce Growth

The retail e-commerce market is experiencing significant growth, primarily driven by the unparalleled convenience it offers consumers. Online shopping allows individuals to browse, compare, and purchase products from the comfort of their homes or on-the-go via mobile devices.

This ease of access eliminates the need for physical store visits, saving time and effort. Moreover, the integration of advanced technologies enables e-commerce platforms to provide personalized shopping experiences, tailoring product recommendations and promotions to individual preferences.

Such personalization not only enhances customer satisfaction but also increases the likelihood of repeat purchases. The combination of convenience and personalization has made online shopping an integral part of modern consumer behavior, contributing significantly to the expansion of the e-commerce sector.

Restraint

Logistics and Fulfillment Complexities

Despite its growth, the e-commerce industry faces significant challenges in logistics and fulfillment. Managing inventory across multiple locations, ensuring timely deliveries, and handling returns efficiently require sophisticated logistics networks.

The complexity increases with the expectation of rapid delivery times, often within the same day. Additionally, last-mile delivery the final step of the delivery process to the consumer’s doorstep poses challenges due to traffic congestion, delivery density, and varying customer availability. These logistical hurdles can lead to increased operational costs and impact customer satisfaction if not managed effectively.

Opportunity

Expansion in Emerging Markets

Emerging markets present a substantial opportunity for the growth of retail e-commerce. Countries in regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America are witnessing rapid increases in internet penetration and smartphone adoption.

This digital transformation is enabling a larger segment of the population to access online shopping platforms. Furthermore, the growing middle class in these regions is driving demand for a variety of products and services. E-commerce businesses that can adapt to local preferences and infrastructure constraints have the potential to tap into these burgeoning markets, fostering economic development and expanding their global footprint.

Challenge

Cybersecurity Threats

As e-commerce platforms handle vast amounts of sensitive customer data, they become prime targets for cyberattacks. Threats such as data breaches, phishing scams, and ransomware attacks can compromise customer trust and lead to significant financial losses. The increasing sophistication of cyber threats necessitates robust cybersecurity measures, including encryption, secure payment gateways, and regular security audits.

Moreover, compliance with data protection regulations across different jurisdictions adds another layer of complexity. Ensuring cybersecurity is not only critical for protecting customer information but also for maintaining the integrity and reputation of e-commerce businesses.

Emerging Trends

Retail e-commerce is rapidly evolving due to changing consumer habits and new technologies. A key trend is quick commerce (q-commerce), which focuses on ultra-fast deliveries sometimes within 10 minutes. Companies like Meituan, Gojek, and Blinkit are at the forefront, expanding beyond groceries to offer products like electronics and fashion.

AI is transforming e-commerce by enabling personalized shopping, improving inventory management, and enhancing customer service. Platforms like Flipkart use AI assistants like ‘Flippi’ to guide buyers. Social commerce on Instagram and Facebook is also rising, using influencer marketing and user content to attract younger shoppers.

Sustainability is increasingly influencing consumer choices, leading retailers to offer eco-friendly products and packaging. At the same time, omnichannel retailing is merging online and offline shopping, providing customers with seamless experiences across stores, websites, and apps.

Key Player Analysis

Key players in the retail e-commerce market dominate through unique business models, extensive product ranges, and advanced technology platforms.

Albertsons Companies, Inc., one of the largest food and drug retailers in the United States, has made significant strides in the e-commerce space. Their robust online shopping platform allows customers to shop for groceries and everyday essentials from the comfort of their homes, with flexible delivery options. Their loyalty programs and personalized offerings through digital channels make them a strong contender in the grocery segment of retail e-commerce.

Alibaba Group is a Chinese multinational conglomerate known for its vast e-commerce platform, which includes retail, wholesale, and digital services. Alibaba also offers a wide range of services beyond shopping, including digital payments, logistics, and cloud computing, making it a major player in the global retail e-commerce sector. Its diverse approach allows Alibaba to reach both domestic and international markets efficiently.

Amazon.com, Inc. is the undisputed leader in global retail e-commerce, revolutionizing online shopping with its user-friendly interface, vast product selection, and fast shipping services. Founded by Jeff Bezos in 1994, Amazon has become a leading online marketplace, offering a wide range of products. Its innovations include Amazon Prime, which provides fast shipping, streaming, and exclusive deals.

Top Key Players in the Market

• Albertsons Companies, Inc.
• Alibaba Group Holding Limited
• Amazon.com, Inc.
• Coupang Inc.
• eBay Inc.
• Inter IKEA Systems B.V.
• Otto (GmbH & Co KG)
• Rakuten Group, Inc.
• Target
• The Kroger Co.
• Walmart Inc.
• Others

Top Opportunities for Players

• Embracing Quick Commerce (Q-Commerce): The demand for rapid delivery services is reshaping consumer expectations. JD.com and Alibaba are ramping up instant retail, delivering within 30–60 minutes to meet rising demand. This strategy enhances customer satisfaction and drives higher-margin sales through deeper engagement.
• Leveraging AI for Personalized Shopping Experiences: Artificial Intelligence is becoming integral in providing tailored shopping experiences. Retailers are utilizing AI to analyze customer behavior, enabling personalized product recommendations and marketing strategies. This personalization enhances customer satisfaction and drives conversion rates.
• Expanding Through Virtual Stores and Immersive Technologies: The integration of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) in e-commerce is creating immersive shopping experiences. Platforms are developing virtual stores that allow customers to explore products in a 3D environment, enhancing engagement and providing a novel shopping experience.
• Capitalizing on India’s Economic Growth: India’s projected GDP growth positions it as a significant market for e-commerce expansion. The increasing digital adoption and a youthful population present opportunities for retailers to tap into a vast and growing customer base. Investments in digital infrastructure and localized strategies can yield substantial returns.
• Integrating with Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC): ONDC aims to democratize digital commerce in India by providing an open network for buyers and sellers. Retailers integrating with ONDC can benefit from increased visibility and access to a broader customer base, especially in tier 2 and tier 3 cities. This initiative supports the growth of small and medium enterprises in the digital space.

Recent Developments

• In May 2025, Alibaba intensified its focus on “instant retail” by expanding its Taobao platform to include one-hour delivery services, leveraging its food delivery arm, Ele.me.
• In January 2025, eBay announced its acquisition of Caramel, an online automotive transaction platform. This move aims to streamline the process of buying and selling vehicles on eBay’s platform.
• In July 2024, Target partnered with Shopify to enhance its third-party marketplace, Target Plus. This collaboration allows Shopify users to sell their products on Target’s website and in stores, expanding Target’s e-commerce offerings.

Report Scope